Research

During 2009, I will be a GlaxoSmithKline Faculty Fellow at the North Carolina State University Institute for Emerging Issues (IEI).  For 2009, the IEI is attempted to address growth pressures and infrastructure problems in North Carolina.  North Carolina contains some of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in North America.  As a fellow, I have written several op-ed pieces on environmental restoration and infrastructure problems related to military growth in the state.   Can North Carolina become the “Good Growth State?”

On this page, you’ll find some information on my past and present research projects.

Current Research

Stream and Wetland Mitigation
This work explores the spatial and ecological patterns associated with stream and wetland mitigation credit markets (from both mitigation banking and in-lieu fee programs) in the State of North Carolina.  In particular, we are interested in the spatial and social disparity implications associated with relocation of wetland and stream restoration sites in the landscape. In this study, we aim to address several major questions: (1) Are stream and wetland restoration sites being re-located in any discernible pattern across space relative to impact locations? (2) If so, are mitigation sites still able to enhance water quality or reduce potential flood damage in the areas experiencing degradation? (3) What are the potential social implications of private stream degradation, and are restoration projects adequately compensating for localized loss of aquatic resources?  The initial phase of this research has focused on the state-run North Carolina Ecosystem Enhancement Program.  Further research is expected to focus on emerging and past private mitigation bank markets.

  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K., Joel Sholtes, Martin Doyle.  Landscape Characteristics of a Stream and Wetland Mitigation Banking Program.  Ecological Applications (In Press-Not Yet Available).
  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K. and Martin Doyle.  Planning for Ecosystem Service Markets.  Journal of the American Planning Association (In Press-Not Yet Available).
  • Funding: UNC Institute for the Environment

Military Growth in Eastern North Carolina
Military-induced growth in eastern North Carolina will cause several small coastal towns to expand by over 60,000 residents.  This growth will have substantial effects on the provision of urban infrastructure (e.g. sewer, roads, schools, etc.) and future development patterns.  This project has been aimed at assessing pertinent issues to planners in the region, as well as recommending urban growth simulation tools that fit community needs.

Regional Simulation Modeling of Urban Growth
Rapid urban growth in North Carolina has had substantial effects on the natural environment, particularly water quality and other stormwater issues.  In this project, we created a simulation model of urban growth for the purpose of assessing the effects of land use change in the Jordan Lake Watershed of North Carolina.  Jordan Lake is a nutrient enriched water body that is now the subject of special development and water quality rules under North Carolina’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources.

Developer Decision-Making in Wetland Mitigation
Under U.S. regulations, developers often have a choice regarding how and where they choose to restore or create wetlands as compensatory mitigation. This project aims to better understand how these decisions are made, specifically how they are correlated with the extent of wetland impacts (sizes), local land markets, and the structure and function of local wetland mitigation bank markets.

Forest Persistence in Urban Regions

Despite the vital services that remnant natural lands in urbanizing areas provide society, surprisingly little is known about the complex socio-ecological factors influencing the persistence of forests and farms in areas of rapid population growth. Is it possible for natural and developed lands to coexist in a setting of rapid growth or are they mutually exclusive? This research examines the complex interactions between people and the environment to find ways that allow natural landscapes to remain functional in a rapidly urbanizing region. This project focuses on processes affecting the persistence of forest landscapes in Charlotte, North Carolina. Charlotte is a rapidly growing metropolitan region that sits in the middle of the “Charlanta” megalopolis, the 3rd largest mega-region in the U.S. The research constructs and validates a framework to connect societal and ecological factors that influence persistence and quality of forest.  Here, we will use hierarchicalstructural equation modeling, augmented by interviews, choice experiments, ecological measurement, visual analytics, and GIS/remote sensing in the Charlotte metropolitan region as a case study of fast growing urban regions in the developed world. These empirical results will inform a spatially-explicit agent-based model that explores alternative futures of urban growth and dynamic interactions between people and environment based on changes in policy, cultural values, and economic drivers, at local, regional and national scales.

Urban Recreational Open Space Creation

This project integrates the creation of new recreational open space into a regional land use change model based on political feedback between growing populations and the dedication of land for open space purposes.

Past Research Projects

Habitat Fragmentation
This project was aimed at assessing how urban growth can fragment habitat, isolate species sub-populations, and potentially limit the viability of future wildlife populations.  To do this, we assessed the potential impacts of urban growth in Columbia, Georgia on the fragmentation of Gopher Tortoise habitat near Fort Benning, a major military installation that contains large habitat areas for this threatened species. This study implemented a spatially explicit system dynamics model (created in NetLogo) to determine how new urban development alters or destroys the pathways that genetically connect local tortoise populations in groups of small habitat patches. The model then tracked the resulting population dynamics to determine the extent that  the new, local meta-populations mixed as individuals moved and bred across the landscape. Original funding for this project came from the Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratory.

  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K. Jim Westervelt, J.P. Aurambout, and William Meyer.  2009.  Simulating Population Variation and Movement within Fragmented Landscapes: A Spatial Dynamic Model of the Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus).  Ecological Modelling 220: 867-878. | LINK
  • Funding: Army Corps of Engineers Engineering Research and Development Center

Dynamic Effects of Wetland Mitigation on No-Net Loss
This project was aimed at understanding the aggregate effects of dynamic lags within the wetland mitigation process. Since 1987, U.S. wetland mitigation policy has intended to maintain a ‘no net loss’ of wetland acreage. Regulations currently do not explicitly acknowledge that functional restoration is delayed by lags in initiating and completing ecological community establishment. This study demonstrated that the compounding effects of small wetland losses can cause high levels of persistent net loss, even in landscapes where restoration projects appear to increase the total wetland acreage and function in the region.

  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K.  2009.  A Dynamic Analysis of the Wetland Mitigation Process and Its Effects on No Net Loss Policy.  Landscape and Urban Planning 89: 17-27. | LINK

Agent-Based Fisheries Modeling
Many fisheries around the world have experienced rapid degradation due to overfishing.  However, fish population crashes are not only devastating to ecological systems, they can also wreak havoc on the small, renewable resource economies often found in coastal fishing villages.  This project involved a series of studies implementing an agent-based, dynamic game model of fisher competition.  With colleagues, I have also begun to assemble a dataset for several Lake Michigan fisheries to extend this model in order to better understand how fishing-centered economies can better manage fish populations and avoid population crashes.

  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K., Jurgen Scheffran, and Bruce M. Hannon.  2009.  Ecological and Economic Sustainability in Fishery Management: A Multi-Agent Model for Understanding Competition and Cooperation.  Ecological Economics 68(4): 1061-1073. | LINK
  • For more info on fisheries, particularly individual transferable quotas, a new policy for managing fisheries, see Christopher Costello’s recent article in Science Magazine.

Biofuel Introduction Modeling
This study simulated the agricultural land use changes likely to occur when introducing bioenergy crops into the Illinois landscape.  Illinois’ north-south orientation creates a heterogeneous growing environment, changing the ability of farmers to profit off certain crops in certain areas.  This fact could potentially hinder the successful introduction of biomass crops.  Here, we created a dynamic, spatially-explicit, agent-based model of agricultural land use in order to better understand the process of introducing miscanthus and switchgrass into a state currently dominated by corn and soybean agriculture.  We were particularly interested in the demand and subsidy structure necessary to help farmers transition to the new crops.  We were also interested in determining the capacity for biomass crop growth in Illinois.

  • Published as: Scheffran, Jurgen, Todd K. BenDor, and Bruce M. Hannon.  2009.  Bioenergy and Land Use: A Spatial-Agent Dynamic Model of Energy Crop Production in Illinois.  International Journal of Environment and Pollution 39(1/2): 4-27. | LINK

Emerald Ash Borer Spread
This set of studies simulated at the impacts of the spread of the Emerald Ash Borer, an invasive Asian beetle introduced into Southeastern Michigan in the late-1990s.  Many authorities have likened the Borer’s capability of damaging the North American Ash tree population to that of Dutch elm disease.  This study implemented a spatial dynamic model to track the spread of the borer during a hypothetical introduction into DuPage County, Illinois.  Here, we looked at both the impacts of land use change and movement of infested firewood on the capability of the borer to spread.

  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K., Sara S. Metcalf, Lauren E. Fontenot, and Brandi Sangunett.  2006.  Modeling the Emerald Ash Borer Spread: A Decision Support System for Invasive Species Eradication.  Ecological Modelling, 197: 221-236. | LINK
  • Published as: BenDor, Todd K. and Sara S. Metcalf.  2006.  The Spatial Dynamics of Invasive Species Spread.  System Dynamics Review, 22(1): 27-50. | LINK